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"I just arrived at the event in a 'Cybercab', and there are 20 more cars of the same type on the road, with no one driving inside, we have 50 fully autonomous vehicles." After a nearly one-hour delay due to a sudden illness at the scene, at around 11 AM Beijing time on October 11th, Tesla held the "Robotaxi Day" event in Los Angeles, USA, showcasing its self-developed Robotaxi autonomous taxi, the Cybercab, without a steering wheel or pedals. Previously, Musk had called this "a historic event."

In Musk's view, the current cost of travel is high, and the driving experience is not good. Robotaxi is personalized public transportation, expected to greatly reduce the average cost of travel. Currently, the cost of travel is still relatively high, at about 1 USD/mile. "The travel cost of Cybercab can be reduced to about 0.2 USD/mile in the future, and the vehicle cost will be less than 30,000 USD," Musk said.

Will the emergence of Cybercab make the scenes in the imagined "cyber world" a reality?

Unlike when Tesla first burst onto the scene, this time, China's Robotaxi commercialization atmosphere is also in place, with China's "new force in car manufacturing" following suit.

Recently, reporters from the "IT Times" learned that Baidu's Robotaxi project "Radish Run" is about to enter the overseas market, and Pony.ai has also started testing autonomous driving routes at Beijing South Station, becoming one of the first Robotaxis from Beijing Economic Development Zone to Beijing South Station.

Mass Production in 2027

In the night scene of the Warner Bros. studio, the "cyber feeling" is very strong. The unique shape and hard lines of Cybercab are particularly sharp under the light, like a "mechanical beast."

"Musk has 'jumped the ticket' again," "Is Robotaxi still charging"... After countless loops of warm-up music, finally, an hour after the scheduled start time, Musk arrived at the scene in a two-door Cybercab.

As expected, the two-door sedan Cybercab uses gull-wing doors, without a steering wheel, pedals, or drivers. All driving tasks will be completed by Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving), like a Tesla car without control devices, and it no longer has NACS plugs, using induction charging. If Cybercab is too small, Tesla will also launch the unmanned freight car Robovan, which can transport goods and carry about 20 people.

FSD is the core of Tesla's Robotaxi and is still in the testing stage, requiring drivers to be ready to take over the vehicle at any time. Since its first release in 2019, FSD has been controversial. Supporters believe that FSD is one of the most advanced autonomous driving systems, which can safely drive vehicles in most situations. Opponents point out that FSD has many safety hazards and have listed several related traffic accidents.

"Robotaxi with FSD is about 10 times safer than human driving. Now there are millions of cars being trained, making the time spent in the car as pleasant, enjoyable, and safe as the time spent on mobile phones," Musk also revealed that Cybercab is expected to start production in 2026 and mass production in 2027. In 2025, Tesla will start unmanned supervision of FSD in Texas and California.

Although the press conference was delayed by nearly an hour, the entire press conference was less than half an hour, and the technical details of Cybercab, the process of hailing a car, and the interior were not announced. Previously, Musk had revealed that Tesla's Robotaxi service is similar to the combination of Airbnb and Uber. On the one hand, Tesla will have its own fleet, and on the other hand, car owners can also join the Robotaxi fleet with their own vehicles.

Since at least April 2019, Musk has been talking about establishing an autonomous driving taxi network, but the launch time has been continuously postponed, from 2023 until now. Now, the "wolf" is really coming.

Famous analyst Guo Mingyu recently said that although Tesla has the hardware design and production capabilities required for manufacturing Robotaxi, the mass production time must wait until the first quarter of 2027, because the Tesla FSD equipped with Robotaxi must meet the requirements of many state governments in the United States for unmanned driving technology, that is, to reach level L4. And Tesla FSD is estimated to reach level L4 in 2026.

Ark Investment predicts that by 2029, autonomous driving taxis will account for 90% of Tesla's market value, and Tesla's stock price will rise to $3,100 per share. If the Robotaxi network has not been put into operation by that year, its target price will be reduced to about $350 per share.

The Scene is the Key to Landing

In the field of autonomous driving, Tesla is not alone. Companies like Waymo and Cruise are also developing and deploying their own Robotaxi services.

The domestic Robotaxi market in China is also heating up. In Shanghai, reporters from the "IT Times" have experienced Robotaxis from companies like Pony.ai and SAIC, where laser radars, cameras, millimeter-wave radars, and other sensors work together during the driving process. Whether it's busy main roads, narrow alleys, intersections with mixed traffic, or maneuvers such as turning, changing lanes, turning, and parking, they can make relatively reasonable and safe decisions. However, in some special scenes, such as cutting in line and giving way, better algorithms are needed to support more humanized decision-making.

According to incomplete statistics, as of July 15th, Wuhan, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Lanzhou, and other places have issued test licenses for autonomous driving network cars, and the number of cities issuing autonomous driving road test licenses has exceeded 50. Taking Shanghai as an example, at the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, four companies including Pony.ai, Baidu Radish Run, SAIC, and Wrap Motion Technology received the "Unmanned Intelligent Connected Vehicle Demonstration Application Permit".

On October 9th, just before the release of Cybercab, Baidu revealed that Radish Run is about to enter the overseas market, has conducted in-depth communications with several international companies, and will cooperate with leading global car companies and technology companies. At the same time, there is also news that Baidu is about to release the Apollo Autonomous Driving Open Platform 10.0, equipped with Baidu's latest autonomous driving model ADFM, greatly improving the safety, intelligence, and ease of use of the autonomous driving open platform.

From the current situation, there is still a big gap between domestic Robotaxi and Cybercab.

Zhang Xiaorong, Dean of the Deep Science Research Institute, told the IT Times reporter, "Tesla was originally a step ahead in electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology, and it also has the Tesla fleet driving on the roads worldwide as a source of data collection, which can help Tesla improve its autonomous driving algorithms."

As of April 2024, Tesla's FSD has accumulated a driving distance of 1.25 billion miles (2 billion kilometers), which is a significant advantage compared to Huawei's 220 million kilometers, Baidu's 100 million kilometers, and Xiaopeng XNGP's 70 million kilometers.

However, some analysts believe that the road conditions in China are more complex than those in Europe and the United States, and the testing scenarios are richer, which to some extent is an advantage for domestic Robotaxi.

Since September 2023, Pony.ai has started testing and real services at Daxing Airport, and recently, it has announced the start of autonomous driving route testing at Beijing South Station, becoming one of the first companies to start the autonomous driving test from Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area to Beijing South Station, and also the first time that Beijing has advanced autonomous driving tests from outside the Fifth Ring Road to the core urban area.

According to reporters from the "IT Times", Pony.ai's autonomous driving vehicles handle various common and long-tail scenarios such as highway toll stations, on and off ramps, temporary road construction, and debris with ease, and can quickly reuse products, technical experience in the Beijing South Station shuttle scenario.

Wang Xianjin, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Deputy Director and Chief Engineer of the Transportation Science Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport, believes that more technology companies should be encouraged to increase their investment in autonomous driving technology, not only involving the research and development of the technical level, but also expanding the scope of operations and increasing the richness of the testing environment.

The Commercialization Curtain is Opened by Multiple Parties

Has the commercialization of Robotaxi begun?

According to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, Robotaxi will achieve large-scale landing around 2026, and it is expected that by 2030, Robotaxi will be widely used globally. At that time, the penetration rate of Robotaxi in China's smart travel will reach 31.8%, and by 2035, it will reach 69.3%. It is expected that by 2030, the market size of Robotaxi in China and globally will reach 488.8 billion yuan and 834.9 billion yuan, respectively.

At present, most cities in China that are developing driverless cars are conducting small-scale commercial trials within a limited area and time.

In January of this year, Pony.ai obtained the intelligent connected vehicle unmanned commercial pilot permit issued by Bao'an District of Shenzhen, becoming the first to open the commercial charging operation service of unmanned taxis in the central urban area of the first-tier cities across the country. Currently, Pony.ai has deployed unmanned autonomous driving fleets in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, and has started unmanned commercial charging services in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.

Shanghai is also promoting the commercial operation of Robotaxi, including setting up test areas, issuing operation licenses, formulating relevant standards, etc., providing legal protection and strong support for the testing and operation of Robotaxi, but it has not officially started yet.

The resonance of technical strength, policy support, operating costs, vehicle scale, and other aspects can accelerate the penetration of Robotaxi, and the commercial landing can be expected.

The total operating cost of the entire life cycle of Robotaxi can be divided into vehicle manufacturing costs, safe operation costs, and transportation operation costs. The high vehicle manufacturing cost is the core reason for the current high unit service cost. According to data disclosed by Ruqi Travel, the laser radar alone accounts for more than 50% of the hardware cost, and the high-performance chips for autonomous driving have also increased the manufacturing cost of Robotaxi vehicles.

Baidu insiders revealed that the sixth-generation unmanned car Yichi, which is currently being tested on the road, sells for 204,600 yuan, which is a 60% decrease compared to the fifth generation of unmanned cars, and is expected to greatly reduce operating costs. In addition, it is necessary to improve the proportion of automated operations, and the cost saved from this part of operations is considerable. Yichi uses a battery swapping model, all vehicles will be automatically scheduled to the battery swapping station for battery swapping according to the service status, location information, and battery life, which greatly reduces labor costs. The battery swapping process is expected to take only 3 minutes, which will also significantly increase the operating time and the number of passengers of Robotaxi.

"Solving the accident liability and insurance issues, establishing public trust in new technologies, and considering how to integrate the existing transportation system, how to deal with the relationship with taxi and ride-hailing service providers, etc., are all prerequisites for the commercial operation of Robotaxi," said Zhang Xiaorong.